Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning

[C. Snake]

I've always found the Peyton Manning - Tom Brady comparision one of the most interesting debate, like the Joe Morgan vs. Rogers Hornsby debate of football. Who do you rank higher? Brady or Manning? Some comparisions:

Passing PCT:

Brady: 61.9

Manning: 64.0

YD:

Brady: 21564

Manning: 37586

TD:

Brady: 147

Manning: 275

[brady_branch]

Still too early to tell. It's like comparing Johan Santana to Roy Oswalt in a historical context.

[cbenson5]

I know that Tom Brady is often given the nod because he has won three rings, but I've always felt that Manning was the superior player. It is certainly evident that he has the counting stats in his favor from Snake's post.

[Brooklyn]

I know that Tom Brady is often given the nod because he has won three rings, but I've always felt that Manning was the superior player. It is certainly evident that he has the counting stats in his favor from Snake's post.

The counting stats are misleading as Manning has played 9 full seasons, and Brady has played 6.

Here are the same stats, per season:

Yards: Brady 3,594. Manning 4,176
TD: Brady 25. Manning 31

Manning is still noticeably higher, but not as much as it first looked.

Manning is only 1 year older, so they are likely to play about the same number of future seasons, so I fully expect Manning to have the much larger counting numbers than Brady when their careers is over.

The big problem with the counting numbers and the passing percentage is the different environments they play in. Playing in New England is a lot tougher than playing in a dome. This is something that is tough to reconcile in the NFL, as the weather from game to game can be different, but I think a lot of Manning's advantage, stat wise, can be attributed to his better home field.

Here are their home / road splits:

Manning

Passing percentage, H. 64.6% R 63.4%
Yards, H 19,128 R 18,458
TD, H 150 R 125

Brady

Passing percentage, H. 60.8% R 62.8%
Yards, H 10,128 R 11,436
TD, H 68 R 79

As I would have suspected, Manning is a better QB at home, and Brady is a better QB on the road, which is a definite indication of the advantage / disadvantage of their home stadiums.

Now lets look just at their road stats, per 16 games.

PCT: manning 63.4%, Brady 62.8%
Yards: Manning 4,101 Brady 3,812
TDs: Manning 27. Brady 26

This is the closest thing I can think of to what they would do on Neutral grounds for a full season. As you can see, they are really not that different.

Of course, their road games aren't really equal either, with Brady having to play in New York and Buffalo every year (plus Miami) and Manning playing in Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston every year. Depending on when the games in New York and Buffalo are, you can see that Brady's divisional road games are tougher (weather-wise) than Manning's divisional road games. Of course, the non-divisional games, as well as the weather on any given day, is a wild card.

as you can tell from all the above, it is tough to really look at stats to see who is better, as I really believe the weather has a bigger affect then any other sport. But I think the two have been pretty even, so I'd give the edge to Brady, as of now, on the extra rings.

[cbenson5]

Hey Brooklyn,

You're post has certainly left me a lot to think about. I've never engaged much in comparing NFL players outside of casual discussions with buddies. Frankly, I didn't even consider home field advantages/disadvantages in this comparison, which makes comparing these two gentleman a bit more difficult.

I also didn't realize that Mr. Brady had only played six season. It seems like he has been around longer that that. I guess it's because he had so much success so quickly.

I do have a concern about comparing them by only their road stats. If the Colt's home field is far more conducive to a passing game than New England's, then wouldn't it give Mr. Brady an advantage over Mr. Manning in road stats.

Also, what do you think about the talent levels that both players have had around them? That is probabaly the biggest variable in attempting to compare two players.

I agree with you that Brady seems to be the quarterback that one would prefer to give the ball to in the postseason.

This comparison is very close.

Charles

[Brooklyn]

Hey Brooklyn,

You're post has certainly left me a lot to think about. I've never engaged much in comparing NFL players outside of casual discussions with buddies. Frankly, I didn't even consider home field advantages/disadvantages in this comparison, which makes comparing these two gentleman a bit more difficult.

I also didn't realize that Mr. Brady had only played six season. It seems like he has been around longer that that. I guess it's because he had so much success so quickly.

I do have a concern about comparing them by only their road stats. If the Colt's home field is far more conducive to a passing game than New England's, then wouldn't it give Mr. Brady an advantage over Mr. Manning in road stats.

If their road games were at the same stadiums, in the same weather I think it would be a fiar comparison. Being that isn't the case, I think it is closer than overall, but agree it isn't perfect. The real problem is that in football weather can swing so dramatically from week to week that it is tough to say what the affect will be. The Colts can play in Giants Stadium in late November and have a beautiful day, and the Patriots can show up one week later and find a snow storm. Really tough to say without looking at them game by game, but the edge is clearly for a QB that plays games in a dome vs. a QB that plays games in New England.

Also, what do you think about the talent levels that both players have had around them? That is probabaly the biggest variable in attempting to compare two players.

Agree entirely. a QB with good receivers has a big advantage. but this is also tough to measure. How much does a good QB make his receivers better, vs. good receivers making the QB better?

It also matters how good your running game is (can they key on the QB?) How good your defense is (can your defense force a 3 and out, to get the other teams' tired defense back on the field quickly?) etc..

I agree with you that Brady seems to be the quarterback that one would prefer to give the ball to in the postseason.

This comparison is very close.

Charles


Agreed it is close. Like I said, I'd give the egde to Brady now, but wouldn't lose sleep over anyone picking Manning.

[CCN]

The image of Manning practically setting up Mike Vanderjagt to fail at the end of their 2005 playoff run weighs heavily to me. He could have done something, anything to improve their positioning so Vanderjagt would have a better place to kick from, and he didn't do it. I really wonder if he let his antimosity for Vanderjagt get the better of him there.

Manning does get points for the Colts comeback win in last year's playoffs. He might be the better QB right now, but, in historical context, I'd go for Brady.

[brady_branch]

Agree entirely. a QB with good receivers has a big advantage. but this is also tough to measure. How much does a good QB make his receivers better, vs. good receivers making the QB better?

It also matters how good your running game is (can they key on the QB?) How good your defense is (can your defense force a 3 and out, to get the other teams' tired defense back on the field quickly?) etc..

As far as receiver strength, Manning clearly has been surrounded by better talent. He's had Marvin Harrison, who some consider a top-ten WR of all time, and Reggie Wayne, who is a legit #1 target, while Brady has had an aging Troy Brown and Deion Branch (the jury is still out on whether he was a product of playing with Brady or not).

As for the running game, I'd say that Edge and Dillon would be about a push. Defense, the edge goes to New England.

However, the most important is WR. I'm convinced that Manning's great stats are more because of having Marvin Harrison than people think. Most people in football say that Harrison helps everybody around him, by catching everyone else's mistakes, and drawing attention away from other receivers.

As for the postseason, the Colts' may have won the Super Bowl DESPITE his performance, not because of it. Brady, on the other hand, was a major reason the Pats won three SBs.

[C. Snake]

As far as receiver strength, Manning clearly has been surrounded by better talent. He's had Marvin Harrison, who some consider a top-ten WR of all time, and Reggie Wayne, who is a legit #1 target, while Brady has had an aging Troy Brown and Deion Branch (the jury is still out on whether he was a product of playing with Brady or not).

As for the running game, I'd say that Edge and Dillon would be about a push. Defense, the edge goes to New England.

However, the most important is WR. I'm convinced that Manning's great stats are more because of having Marvin Harrison than people think. Most people in football say that Harrison helps everybody around him, by catching everyone else's mistakes, and drawing attention away from other receivers.

As for the postseason, the Colts' may have won the Super Bowl DESPITE his performance, not because of it. Brady, on the other hand, was a major reason the Pats won three SBs.

And this is wear the stats don't say it all. Tom Brady is a guy who always looks at the passing game, who always wants to throw the ball. And the fact that he can pass with such great stats to go along with it, even though the best WR he's ever had was Deion Branch, who is an all star. The best Manning has had is Marvin Harrison, who is an absolute superstar. Harrison is a guy who can catch big mistakes, while the likes of Deion Branch and Troy Branch couldn't, or at least not as well as Harrison can. And even when Brady does look at the run, the best he ever could hand it off too was Corey Dillion, while Manning has Joseph Addai and had Edgerrin James. And as brady said, Brady (but Adam Vinatieri comes close) is the main reason the Pats won 3 SBs, while Manning wasn't even the main reason they won 1.

[gridiron]

With Vinetari around, the QB doesn't have to be superlative. Edge still to Brady though.