The Point Shares theory of football

[redbuck]

Introducing my theory about football. Okay, so its name is kind of copied from Bill James, but...

I'm not saying I even believe in it, but just thought I'd post it to see what everyone thinks. I can pretty well guess the reaction - negative. But remember, I'm not advocating it. I'm just putting it out there. Obviously turnovers, great defenses, etc. change the game.

Link to story:

The Point Shares Theory of Football (http://rogerfweber29.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/pointshares2.doc)

Link to my site:

Sportslibrary.net (http://sportslibrary.net)

[gridiron]

Even for turnoverless games, the idea is flawed. Safeties result in both a score and the team that scores getting the ball, so the data are skewed to start with. And while a blocked EP isn't technically a turnover, it does effect scoring like a turnover. So why count blocked EPs but not blocked FGs?

But how many games have no turnovers? Not enough to use for any kind of valid stat.

[redbuck]

Of course there will rarely be a game without turnovers. the theory is absolutely flawed but there is some worth to looking at the game in the sense of TD and FG equality.

8/6 * 6/8 = 1/1
(traveling 6/8 the distance, times a 6/8 rate of success can equate to an equal value of TD and FG)

Remember this is only a theory, not a genuine belief

As for safeties, the team that scores gets its two points, then gets the ball as on a regular drive, albeit a little further down the field usually. So that shouldn't really affect the theory because the two points are still awarded.

As for the blocked or missed extra points, I believe they happen less than 3% of the time. A missed field goal occurs about 25% of the time. A missed field goal costs the team three points, what could have been six or seven and makes worthless a long drive. That's a lot of power with the placekicker.

The point of the theory is to eliminate forces of luck. Many football statisticians believe turnovers are random. Missed field goals are not the fault of the driving team but the fault of its placekicker and sometimes bad blocking on the play. A 21-9 game looks like a total blowout, but with a few changes in policy decisions, perhaps if the first team plays conservatively and decides not to go for it twice on fourth and 1 at the 17 yard line, and the other team plays liberally, going for TDs instead of field goals, facing a lighter defense late in the game, they might score a TD or two. The game could, because of a few simple decisions, gone either way. Perhaps a 13-17 final.

In football more weight than is deserved is placed on the power of the punter, placekicker and defensive backs. A turnover or two or a missed field goal can change a game by 7 or even 14 points.

[gridiron]

Saying the kickers are overrated is like saying the closers are overrated in baseball. We'll take out say Rivera (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=riverma01) for one team and the Fireman of this Year (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/aw_snfi.shtml) for another and that will level the field. So we can say the field is level if we remove Viniteri and O'Brien from the 2004 teams.

I just don't see it that way either.